Service Plays Friday 11/12/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What Bettors Need To Know: Friday College Football Action

Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-3, 47)

Why Ball State Covers

Beating 0-10 Akron doesn’t prove much, but the Cardinals’ come from behind overtime win might just give them enough confidence against another MAC cellar dweller. The game had a bit of a dramatic ending as well with TE David Schneider catching the winning TD. The freshman ranked at the bottom of the depth chart and was pretty much the last option for that game-winning play.

The statistics are ugly with both of these two teams - they rank in the bottom of nearly every category, so the key here for Ball State backers is momentum and attitude.

Buffalo goes into the contest on a four-game losing streak and has pretty much given up on the season, while Ball State got a jolt of confidence last week from an unlikely source.

Why Buffalo Covers

Injuries. Ball State is one of the few teams in college football that hasn’t had a bye week yet and the schedule is taking its toll. It doesn’t help either that it is a short week for the Cardinals or that they had a double OT game.

"These guys are tired," Ball State head coach Parrish said. "We've had no open date. Most everybody's had an open date. We've been playing football since early August. At certain positions we've been wiped out."

Also home field advantage is huge in games of this nature with both teams on equal setting in terms of talent.

Notes On The Total

The over has hit in each of the two sides’ five matchups and this is the lowest total (46.5) in series history. Popular opinion is slightly in favor of the over, even though the line has moved from down 47.

Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals (+34.5, 63)

Why Boise State Covers

Guess who the odd man out is in the national title picture again? With no playoff and no decent team left on the schedule, Boise’s last resort is to blow out the four remaining teams on its schedule. As much as people joke about it, it would be short sided to think that voters or the players themselves aren’t aware of the spread.

The Broncos look to come out strong against their instate rivals and the second ranked offense in points scored per game should have no problem putting up points against a defense that ranks 101st in the nation. Don't forget either that Idaho has given up 108 points in its last two games.

Why Idaho Covers

The Broncos do not enjoy playing in the claustrophobia-inducing Kibbie Dome. Boise State president Bob Kustra even referred to the culture in Moscow, Idaho as "nasty" and "inebriated".

And while the Vandals have not beaten the Broncos since 1998, they have done well against the spread at home covering at the Kibbie Dome in their last two meetings.

Idaho looks to balance out the offense a bit more and this will work in backers favor as it has proved more effective in the past. In their blowout losses to Hawaii and Nevada, the Vandals had a 52 to 20 and a 41 to 19 pass/rush ratio.

Earlier in the year when they covered against Nebraska the rush to pass ratio was 39 to 38. More emphasis on the run should also take more time of the clock.

Notes On The Total

A couple books opened the total up at 61.5 but it has settled at 63.5 now at most places. The over has hit four times in the last five meetings in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Best NCAAF Bets

Ball State Cardinals at Buffalo Bulls (-3, 47)

The Big East might not have the sexiest brand of football around, but don’t tell that to the South Florida Bulls and Cincinnati Bearcats. Both teams are going to look to take a major step towards going to a bowl game this year on Friday night in a nationally televised college football betting affair.

The Bulls haven’t scored a touchdown in almost nine full quarters of action, and it’s high time that QB BJ Daniels does enough to get his team a major score. These INTs are really coming back to haunt the sophomore on the season, as he has thrown ten of them this year, nine of which came in the team’s three losses. Daniels is only completing 56.0 percent of his passes for just 803 yards, and he has 190 yards on the ground. All of his averages are down from his freshman year, and he already has more INTs in six games than he did for the massive majority of last season. It’s really hard to complain about the way the defense has played, though the schedule hasn’t been all that tough. The only team to score more than 20 on the Bulls this year has been the Florida Gators, and a good number of those points in the Swamp came from turnovers and special teams. This unit held the great RB Noel Devine to just 29 yards on ten carries last weekend in Morgantown and hasn’t allowed more than two TDs in a game since that UF loss.

The Bearcats are taking small steps right now towards getting back to the form that they were in last season when they ran the table in the regular season. Cincinnati wasn’t dominating, but it did what it had to do to beat the Louisville Cardinals last week on the road as short favorites. That game was also played under the bright lights of Friday Night Football, so we aren’t worried about nerves at all. It’s almost as though that 31-29 loss to the Oklahoma Sooners provided a real kick start to this offense, as all of a sudden, the team has 80 points on the board in the last two weeks. QB Zach Collaros has 17 TD passes this year against just three picks, two of which came in last week’s victory. However, he also had five TD passes and threw for 275 yards, numbers which HC Butch Jones would take 100% of the time. The Bearcat signal caller has averaged at least 7.6 yards per attempt in all of his games this season, and he has had five straight games with at least two TD passes and four straight with at least three.

The only questionable matchup we really see is whether Daniels can really get the Bulls on the board a few times or not. Our guess is that he’ll need to generate at least 20 points to stick within this type of a number, and we tend to believe that he can’t do that even though the Cincy ‘D’ hasn’t really been much to write home about on the season. We’ll run against the Bulls for our Friday night college football free pick.

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -8.5


Boise State Broncos at Idaho Vandals (+34.5, 63)

On Friday, the Boise State Broncos make the short trip to face the Idaho Vandals. The Broncos look the keep the ball rolling against a Vandals team that should be pumped-up. We’ve seen teams with mediocre records step up their level of play to threaten some top teams this year. It is problematic whether the Vandals will be up to the task.

There has been no letdown from this Boise State squad yet. It is unusual for a celebrated team like Boise State to cover week after week in spite of a large national following. Such teams normally lay bigger numbers than they should be, leading to a lack of covers. This is not the case with Boise State. Bettors anticipating flat performances against hapless teams can keep waiting. Rather than suffering a lull or becoming discouraged by their lack of BCS progress, they are just leaving it all on the field.

At the same time, bettors anticipating a letdown could see this as a good spot. Facing upcoming games against more-difficult Fresno State and especially Nevada, one could imagine a Broncos squad lacking a spark, especially on the road. The problem is that Idaho is really suffering. As if giving up 320 yards and 5 touchdowns to Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick and company isn’t enough, they allowed 100 yards rushing to 3 different running backs! Giving up 830 yards to Reno doesn’t bode well going into a game against the 2nd-ranked scoring offense in the nation.

Boise State catches tremendous flack for their weak WAC conference, yet Idaho managed to drop their last two games to WAC rivals by a combined 81 points. Now facing the far-and-away conference kingpin, the prognosis looks dreary. Idaho lost their leading receiver last week for the rest of the season, but they have some depth at that position, so the offense should remain intact. Not that it was very good to begin with, especially with a dilapidated running game that will allow the Broncos defense to hone in on the Idaho receiving crew.

The Idaho defense in lingering around the 100 spot in rankings in most defensive categories. To lesser WAC squads, they have allowed 48 to Louisiana Tech, 45 to Hawaii, and 63 to Nevada. An offense that looks potent against teams like UNLV, Western Michigan, and New Mexico State has looked flat facing the marginally better teams. Everything on paper lines up for a Boise State rout. But laying 35 points on the road is never appetizing. Factor in the possibility that Boise State might be mentally seeking a week off before making their final late-season statement-making rush and maybe the Vandals can save some face on a bad season and make a respectable showing. Expecting a letdown might be asking too much for Idaho, but if they draw a Broncos team that is an octave lower in spirit, like in the Louisiana Tech game, a cover isn’t out of the question.

The only thing Boise State can do is keep hammering these teams and hope for a shakeup among the elite BCS teams. The offense and defense is playing with an edge that comes from a lack of acknowledgment and respect. That’s not going to change. Kellen Moore is throwing at a 72% completion ratio and in less than 2 seasons has thrown for 60 touchdowns against a measly 7 picks. He gets everyone involved. The defense is ranked 2nd in yards and points against. The Broncos have a package that should take Idaho out of this game fairly quickly.

Expect big doses of Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Doug Martin, and Jeremy Avery, as the Broncos mash their way to an early lead. At some point, the foot will be taken off the gas. Sure. The Broncos are playing with a chip on their shoulder, but in the middle of the 3rd quarter, when they’re up to the tune of 42-7, it will be difficult to find the motivation to keep lighting up the Vandals. Look for Idaho to sneak in a late score for a backdoor cover.

Pick: Idaho Vandals +34.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK ''N' ROLL

Friday's Best NBA Bets

Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder (N/A)

Kenny “The Jet” Smith perfectly broke down the current state of the Thunder and the team’s win-with-offense mentality.

“They are just like your girlfriend, Chuck,” Smith said to TNT co-host Charles Barkley, “they look pretty, but no brains.”

And it’s pretty hard to argue with The Jet. The Thunder, the pick by many teams to finish second in the Western Conference and challenge the two-time defending champion Lakers, is sloppy at best on defense. Oklahoma City is 22nd in the league in points allowed (103.9), 28th in opponents field goal percentage (48.1) and 27th in opponents three-point percentage (40.4).

Combine those lack-luster numbers, along with an offense that is among the more dynamic in the league, and you have a recipe which has led to the team’s 6-1 mark against the total this season. Kevin Durant is averaging a phenomenal 28.1 points per game and Russell Westbrook, the team’s scoring point, averages 7.9 assists per night.

"This is not us," Durant said. "This is not our team. We're a lockdown defending team."

So far this season, they aren’t.

Pick: Over


New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves(+3, 213)

Don’t call the Knicks road warriors. But the team isn’t exactly road kill either.

The Knicks have split four road games this season and looked more than respectable in all but one. New York won outright as an underdog in Chicago and Toronto and then lost a nail-bitter to Boston, 105-101, but covered the spread in Massachusetts.

"We are playing well, we really are," New York forward Amar’e Stoudemire said. "We're doing a good job defensively. That's the most important factor for us right now. Our offensive is going to work itself out. Guys are slowly getting into their rhythm out there. It seems to be playing well for us."

Meantime the Timberwolves have been a punching bag for the rest of the league, going 2-7 SU this season and just 3-6 ATS. The biggest problem for this team is easy – it’s playing some of the worst defense in the league. Minnesota is yielding nearly 110 points per game, the second-worst total in the game, and is allowing opponents to shoot a whopping 47 percent from the floor.

In three home games this year, the team is a mediocre 1-2 and has given up more than 112 points in two of those losses.

Pick: New York Knicks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets

Injuries are demolishing the Colorado Avalanche for the second year in a row.

After being ravaged by emerging young talent getting unlucky breaks a year ago, the team is suffering through the same hardships as it fights to stay among the top teams of the Northwest Division. In the second period of a 4-2 loss to Calgary in which the team blew a late lead, both top-line left wing TJ Galiardi (broken wrist) and fourth-line winger David Van Der Gulik (torn MCL) were lost to injuries.

But they will have plenty of company on injured reserve. Craig Anderson (knee), Kyle Cumiskey (concussion), David Koci (broken jaw), Peter Mueller (concussion), Adam Foote (concussion) and Kyle Quincey (concussion) all are out indefinitely with a host of ailments. Overall the team has 10 injured players.

The lack of cohesion from the depleted roster is a big reason the squad ranks 27th in defense (3.3 goals per game) and 29th in penalty killing (71.9 percent).

And don’t look for it to get easier against the Blue Jackets.

Columbus is led by the stellar play of goalie Mathieu Garcon, who has a 1.28 goals-against average and a sparkling .951 save percentage. He should be just as stingy against the Avs.

Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets


Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers

This one has snoozefest written all over it.

The Wild are among the stingiest teams in the game, giving up a mere 2.2 goals per game, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. But don’t expect the Panthers to make things easy on the visitors. Florida gives up just 2.5 goals per game, the 10th-best mark in the league. Both teams also excel at killing penalties, with the Panthers fighting off man advantages at a 90.2 percent clip and the Wild at an 86.4 percent pace.

Overall the teams have a combined 10-16 mark against the total this year, with the Wild seeing the under hit in six straight and the Panthers in three of their past five.

History also says to play the under. The under has hit in six of the Wild’s past eight games, while the under is a perfect, 8-0 in the Panthers’ past eight against the Northwest Division.

"Our margin for error in games is really, really small," Minnesota coach Todd Richards said. "We have to be on top of our game. We aren't a team that's going to go out and explode for six goals in a period or five goals in a period."

Pick: Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Friday's Wagering Tips

Lines To Watch

Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic: The total opened at 199.5, but has since shifted to has high as 202.5 with many services.

Who’s Hot

The over is 8-2 in the Jazz’s past 10 road games.

The Kings are 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 road games.

The over is 4-1 in the Coyotes past five home games.

Who’s Not

The under is 7-1-1 in the Mavericks pas nine home games.

The Stars are 11-23 in their past 34 road games.

The Devils are 0-8 in their past eight home games.

Key Stat

-46 – The career plus-minus of Blue Jackets defenseman Rostislav Klesla. This season, however, he leads the league with a plus-14 mark and has added four assists. In no other season has he finished any better than plus-7, and the 28-year-old is owned in only 1 percent of Yahoo! fantasy leagues. Think the Blue Jackets are buying into a team-defense approach that has them in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase?

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

The Minnesota Vikings could get a lot of good news for their game against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Or, it could be a lot of bad information for the resurgent Vikes. All-purpose threat Percy Harvin is nursing a sprained ankle and missed practice this week as he was again suffering from migraines. However, stud receiver Sidney Rice could be making his sorely needed season debut. The team has until Friday to make a decision to activate him, and smart players should be paying careful attention to the wire for an update.

Game Of The Day

Boise State at Idaho (+34.5, 63.5)

Notable Quotable

“We don’t really like anybody. We like ourselves.” – Celtics guard Ray Allen on his team’s rivalry with the Miami Heat.

Notes And Tips

Kentucky center Enes Kanter has been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. The freshman center from Turkey was expected to be a crux of the rebuilt Wildcats and the team’s quest to return to the final four. Kanter allegedly received bonuses above necessary expenses while playing for a club team in his home country and violated terms of his eligibility. Kentucky opens the season on Friday night against East Tennessee State.

The Rangers might not be playing well in front of him, but it’s tough to find a tougher netminder than New York’s Henrik Lundqvist. The King has won four of his past five starts and has allowed only five total goals in those wins. When Lundqvist is between the pipes, the smart money should be on the Rangers.

Starter Alex Smith has been relieved by both David Carr and Troy Smith this season, but it remains to be seen who will be the starter when the team takes the field to face the St. Louis Rams on Sunday following a bye week. The 49ers are just 2-6, but only two games back of the Rams and have the second-easiest schedule in the league during the second-half of the season. Alex Smith hasn’t been officially ruled out with a shoulder injury, but Troy Smith is again expected to start. If the Niners pull the upset over the first-place Rams? Look for things to get messy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PRIMETIME SPORTS ADVISORS
Rocky Sheridan

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS NO DOUBT TOTAL
5* Boise State Broncos Over 63

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KEITH MARTINS SPORTS

NCAAB
Temple -5
Cal Santa Barbara -3
Georgia Southern +25

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE PREDICTION MACHINE

112 6:00 PM @ BUFF BALLST -3 7.4 59.2 Normal Play

112 6:00 PM BALLST @ BUFF 47 42.3 Under 60.1 Normal Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 111-112: Ball State at Buffalo (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 62.270; Buffalo 67.191
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Under

Game 113-114: Boise State at Idaho (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 112.876; Idaho 81.819
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 31; 67
Vegas Line: Boise State by 35; 62
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+35); Over

 

[mowerfixer1]

Bobby Maxwell
Friday's Winners...
400-Unit College Hoops Opening Lock - NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS

Two teams that were in the Sweet 16 meet in Syracuse tonight when Northern Iowa takes on the Orangemen in the Carrier Dome. The Panthers became the darlings of the NCAA tourney in March when they knocked out top-seeded Kansas in the second round.

Now, Northern Iowa comes in missing three starters from that squad, but they have filled the roster with eight true or redshirt freshmen. But regardless of who is on the court, all the Panthers know how to play defense. This team has been one of the best defensive teams in the country the last several seasons, allowing just 55.1 points per game last season.

Syracuse won 30 games last year and the Big East regular season crown, and after wins over Vermont and Gonzaga in the big dance, they fell in the Sweet 16 to eventual finalist Butler, falling 63-59 as six-point favorites. The Orangemen looked good in the exhibition season, blowing out two Division II opponents this year instead of losing to one like they did last season.

Northern Iowa is on ATS streaks of 19-8 on the road, 38-18 overall and 7-1 in non-conference games. The Panthers know how to play defense and you know they’ll be locked in from the three-point line.

Syracuse might win this game, but it’s going to be low-scoring and tough against the Panthers’ defense. I’m going to grab the points and play Northern Iowa.



100-Unit NBA Road Warrior - UTAH JAZZ

Look what this Utah team has done the last three nights and you can see why they will come out and continue to play good basketball in Atlanta tonight. Grab the points with Utah in this one.

The Jazz rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat the Clippers in double-OT on Saturday, then went to Miami on Tuesday and trailed by 22 points in the third quarter before winning 116-114 in OT, getting 11 points from Paul Milsap in the final 29 seconds to force the OT. Then Wednesday they closed the game with a 48-20 run to beat Orlando 104-94 after trailing by 18 in the third quarter.

Utah won’t need the big rally tonight because they are facing an Atlanta team that is struggling mightily right now. The Hawks have lost three straight and they looked very lethargic in a 108-91 home loss to the Bucks on Wednesday, trailing by as many as 30 points. They are without Marvin Williams with a bone bruise in his knee and reserve Mo Evans hasn’t played since the season-opener with a knee injury.

The Jazz have been getting great play from PG Deron Williams and Milsap. Williams has averaged 27 points and 11.7 assists during the three comeback wins. Milsap is averaging 23.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 61.4 percent shooting in filling the starting role vacated by Carlos Boozer’s departure to Chicago.

Utah comes in on ATS streaks of 5-0 against the Southeast Division, 4-1 after a straight-up win and 20-6-1 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Hawks are not very good at the betting window, on ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 2-5 as a favorite, 2-9 after a straight-up loss, 1-7 after a day off, 0-6 at home and 0-4 as a home favorite.

I’ll grab the points and play the red-hot Jazz in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KYLE HUNTER

5* Boise State/Idaho OVER 62.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux Sports

Today's Free Pick is UCLA -17.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pro Tipster

Date Country League Event Our pick
12.11.2010 Romania Liga 1 Vaslui - CSM Ploiesti Vaslui -0.5,-1
12.11.2010 Romania Liga 1 Otelul - Viitoria Branesti Otelul -1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA WRITE-UP

Friday, November 12

Hot Teams
-- Jazz won five of last six games, winning last two at Miami/Orlando.
-- Pacers are 2-1 as a home favorite so far this season.
-- Orlando won four of last five games, but is 0-4 vs spread in last four.
-- Mavericks won four of their last five games. 76ers covered four of last five games, including last three as a road underdog.
-- Trailblazers won six of their first nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Hawks lost last three games, by 4-4-17 points.
-- Washington is off to 2-4 start; they covered one of last four. Rockets lost six of first seven games and now Yao Ming is hurt.
-- Raptors lost last six games (1-4 vs spread in last five).
-- Bobcats lost six of their first eight games.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last seven games. Knicks lost last three in a row, by 10-27-5 points.
-- Suns are off to 3-4 start, covering one of last five games. Kings lost last three games (all at home), by 12-9-9 points.
-- Thunder failed to cover last five games as a favorite.
-- Clippers are 1-8, but they covered four of last five games- they're 1-3 at home. Pistons are 0-4 on road (2-2 as road dog), losing by 3-10-9-22.

Back-to-Back
-- None.

Totals
-- Five of last six Utah games went over total.
-- Three of four Houston road games went over the total. Three of last four Indiana games stayed under.
-- Three of last four Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Four of five Charlotte road games went over the total.
-- Three of last four New York games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Phoenix games went over the total.
-- Six of seven Thunder games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Clipper games went over the total. Three of last four Detroit games stayed under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL WRITE-UP

Friday, November 12

Hot Teams
-- Blue Jackets won eight of their last eleven games. Avalanche won four of their last six road games.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.
-- Ducks won last five games, all by one goal.

Cold Teams
-- Penguins lost six of their last eight games. Lightning lost four of five.
-- Oilers lost 10 of their last 12 games. Devils are off to a 4-12 start.
-- Panthers are 1-4 in the game following a win.
-- Flames lost four of their last five games. Coyotes lost three of four.
-- Dallas lost three of last four road games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Penguin games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Edmonton games.
-- Over is 6-2 in Colorado's last eight games. Under is 8-3 in Columbus' last eleven games.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Calgary road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Anaheim games stayed under the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Minnesota is 1-2 if it played the night before.

Series Records
-- Lightning won three of last four games against Pittsburgh.
-- Oilers won last two games vs New Jersey, 2-1/2-0.
-- Avalanche won their last five games against Columbus.
-- Minnesota won three of last four games against the Panthers.
-- Calgary is 7-4 in last eleven games against Phoenix.
-- Stars lost three of last four visits to Anaheim.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with East Carolina (+2) Thursday night.

Friday it's Ball State. The deficit is 20 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
548- 398 run 58 %

Bonus Play FRI Over 47 Ball St / Buf

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Play Friday

Ball St - Buffalo under 47

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 68-42 (.618)
ATS: 65-52 (.556)
ATS Vary Units: 196-197 (.499)
Over/Under: 60-58 (.508)
Over/Under Vary Units: 90-79 (.533)

ATLANTA 102, Utah 100
INDIANA 109, Houston 104
ORLANDO 109, Toronto 92
Charlotte 93, WASHINGTON 92
New York 109, MINNESOTA 107
DALLAS 106, Philadelphia 92
PHOENIX 117, Sacramento 100
OKLAHOMA CITY 98, Portland 96
L.A. CLIPPERS 97, Detroit 96